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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

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The then-prime minister, Rishi Sunak, announced 4 July 2024 as the election date on 22 May 2024. However, internal planning for that date had already begun at 10 Downing Street and Conservative Campaign Headquarters before the announcement.

Anthony Lee’s senior campaigning role gave him access to confidential discussions about the election timing. Rather than keeping that information confidential, he placed bets and passed it to his wife. She then used the information to place her own bets.

UK operators already carry out enhanced checks on politically exposed persons (PEPs), but this case shows the limits of those safeguards, Bethan Lloyd, partner at law firm Wiggin, recently told iGB.

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In July last year, Veikkaus iGaming EVP Jarkko Nordlund told iGB: “The competition will be fierce when the market opens, so we must be very competitive. Our aim is to challenge the mentality of our current position, so we need to secure market leadership.” 

According to its interim report for the first half of 2026, released this week, Veikkaus reported a 1% yearly increase in sales revenue of €471.3 million ($546.8 million).

Operating profit rose to €227.7 million, up from €220.6 million, while profit for the period reached €234.2 million, compared to €229.6 million a year earlier.