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This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.

“It’s not a dark alley,” he continues. “It’s a large operator that’s regulated in other places, so it’s not the risk for the player that sometimes is implied.”

With the central challenge of tax to compete with, operators face a test of whether they can maintain growth while remaining competitive in an increasingly fierce market.

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A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.

“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.

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Sentencing for Lee, Lee and Hind is set for 23 October 2026 at Southwark Crown Court. Williams will be sentenced at a later date. The Gambling Commission has said trials for the remaining ten defendants will take place in September 2027 and January 2028.

The Commission launched its investigation into various reports of insider betting on the election date in June 2024 after Ladbrokes flagged a bet placed by Williams, who was recorded as a politically exposed person.

Further bets flagged by operators involved other politically sensitive individuals, including Metropolitan Police officers and political advisers. The Commission charged 15 people total in April 2025. Four have now pleaded guilty.