Break Bones

What is Break Bones?

Below is the graph of 1-month rates from CNBC. They are about to cross the zero boundary.

When that happens, commodities prices are going to get completely unhinged. The cash on corporate balance sheets is going to start losing purchasing power very fast. And that will only encourage more dumping of it, and increase the positive feedback loop now already in place.

They can dump it for BTC, sure. But that’s not going to help at all. Why not? Because the value of BTC depends entirely on the U.S. dollar still being usable in a basic sense as a currency. If the dollar falls, so does BTC, because BTC is not fundamentally useful other than as a way of transferring dollars or other fiat currencies. If there is no value to transfer, there is no value to the transfer tool. Corporates are going to have to dump extra paper currency for gold, quickly, yesterday, or they are going to lose everything. Same for individuals. Time is almost out now, I’m sorry to say. Good luck out there, and if you want a guide during these crazy times of monetary chaos, follow me on SeekingAlpha, and sign up for a free trial at The End Game Investor. 

What is Break Bones?

The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.

For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.

Nobody is predicting the end of gambling. The market is still growing. Good operators are still making money. New products are emerging.

What is Break Bones?

Lottomatica and Cirsa have agreed a blockbuster merger that would create the second-largest listed gaming and sports betting operator in the world.

Announced on Wednesday, the all-share deal is expected to close in Q2 2027, forming a combined group with a pro forma adjusted EBITDA of around €2 billion ($2.3 billion).

Cirsa’s implied pro forma value, before synergies, corresponds to an multiple of approximately 6x its expected 2026 EV/EBITDA which will be between €800 million and €820 million, according to the operator’s most recent earnings.